Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

With significant population fractions in many societies who refuse vaccines, it is important to reconsider how vaccination is incorporated into compartmental epidemiology models. It is still most common to apply the vaccination rate to the entire class of susceptibles, rather than to use the more realistic assumption that the vaccination rate function should depend only on the population of susceptibles who are willing and able to receive a vaccination. This study uses a simple generic disease m...

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is considerably more severe among individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), leading to higher parasite loads, frequent relapse, and increased mortality. To examine the epidemiological interaction between the two diseases, we develop a comprehensive VL-HIV co-infection model that incorporates transmission pathways, treatment effects, and relapse dynamics. The model is parameterized using real-time data from Bihar, India, including monthly VL-only an...

We present results from the second season of Influcast, a multi-model collaborative forecasting hub focused on influenza in Italy. During the 2024/25 winter season, Influcast collected one-to four-week-ahead probabilistic forecasts of influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence alongside influenza A and B ILI+ incidence signals. New ILI+ targets were constructed integrating syndromic surveillance data with virological detections collected weekly by the Italian National Institute of Health. Forecasts ...

Molecular subtyping of cancer is traditionally defined in transcriptomic space, yet routine clinical deployment is limited by the availability and cost of sequencing. Meanwhile, histopathology captures rich morphological information that is known to correlate with molecular state but lacks a principled, mechanistic bridge to gene-level representations. We propose a graph-constrained learning framework that aligns morphology-derived signals with a fixed, data-driven gene network discovered via hi...

BackgroundIn immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) trials, overall survival (OS) benefits are well established, yet improvements in quality of life (QoL) are often inconsistent or absent in conventional analyses. This apparent discordance raises important questions: are QoL outcomes truly unrelated to survival, and how can QoL results be better utilized and interpreted? MethodsA model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) of longitudinal EORTC QLQ-C30 global health status/quality of life data from randomized ...

Importance: Lung cancer mortality in the United States has fallen substantially in recent decades, yet the relative influence of behavioral, environmental, socioeconomic, and therapeutic factors and their sex specific contributions remains unclear. Understanding these drivers is essential to sustain progress and reduce persistent disparities. Objective: To quantify how behavioral, environmental, socioeconomic, and therapeutic determinants collectively shaped US lung cancer mortality from 1994 to...

A recent randomized clinical trial in non-small cell lung cancer1 confirms what numerous observational studies have reported time of day (ToD) may dramatically influence treatment outcomes in cancer patients. In this recent trial median overall survival (OS) decreased from 28 months in the early ToD arm to 16.8 months in the late ToD arm. We raise the concern that clinical trial outcomes may be influenced by seemingly minor biases in treatment time across arms. We also suggest that by measuring ...

Ambient air pollution has been associated with increased incidence of chronic disease and is estimated to contribute towards 4.2 million early deaths annually. Whilst the health impacts are well described, less is understood about the underlying biological mechanisms, particularly when considering the co-occurrence of multiple pollutants. Using an atmospheric chemistry transportation model (EMEP4UK), we generate pre-baseline sampling pollution exposure estimates for eight pollutants in Generatio...

Immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS) is a common and life-threatening complication of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy, with early detection being critical for timely intervention and improved outcomes. Cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) are key mediators of the inflammatory cascade underlying ICANS pathogenesis, but prospective clinical evidence for their predictive value is limited. Here we quantify IL-6 levels in a prospective cohort of 40 CAR-T pat...

Wastewater is increasingly being recognized as an important data stream that can contribute to infectious disease surveillance and forecasting. With this recognition, a growing number of statistical inference approaches are being developed to use wastewater data to provide quantitative insights into epidemiological dynamics. However, few existing approaches have allowed for systematic integration of data streams for inference, for example by combining case incidence data and/or serological data ...

Background: Human-to-human transmission of pathogens fundamentally depends on interactions among infectious and susceptible individuals, yet traditional population-scale models often overlook the stochastic, behaviour-driven, and highly heterogeneous nature of these interactions. Methods: Here, we develop a large-scale actor-based model capturing early epidemic dynamics of a novel respiratory pathogen on dynamic contact networks. We build these networks upon explicitly integrating detailed demog...

Introduction: Manual data extraction from unstructured clinical notes is labor-intensive and impractical for large-scale clinical and research operations. Existing automated approaches typically require large language models, dedicated computational infrastructure, and/or task-specific fine-tuning that depends on curated data. The objective of this study is to enable accurate extraction with smaller locally deployed models using a disease-site specific pipeline and prompt configuration that are ...

Suicide is one of the worlds leading public health problems, with more than 720,000 deaths annually. Suicide has traditionally been studied from an individual perspective. However, research has increasingly highlighted the influence of community-level factors on suicide risk. This study aimed to (1) analyse the spatial distribution of suicide mortality at the provincial level in Spain (2018-2022); (2) perform stratified analyses by sex and age group; and (3) compare suicide risk across differen...

Introduction: Neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) including Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), multiple sclerosis (MS), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and non-AD dementias share chronic neuroinflammatory mechanisms that contribute to neuronal injury and disease progression. While anti-inflammatory therapies (AITs) are associated with reduced neurodegenerative disease risk, knowledge regarding the impact of biological sex and treatment duration across multiple NDDs remains li...

BackgroundNo randomized clinical trial comparing the most established new modalities of treatment for patients with localized prostate cancer has been published, and there is scarce comparative effectiveness research assessing Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs). Objectiveto compare the impact of active surveillance, robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), and real-time brachytherapy on patients, through PROMs, from pre-treatment to five years...

Biological ageing begins before birth, with early-life exposures shaping late-life health. These exposures drive health inequities early, yet specific exposures and the composition of the ageing exposome remain largely undefined. This gap may persist as the field lacks agnostic investigations accounting for non-linearity, interactions and subtle signals. We aimed to identify exposures predictive of epigenetic ageing accumulated during childhood and adolescence and explore the composition of the...

ObjectivesGrowth Mindset and Grit have been proposed as key psychological resources for resilience and adaptation, yet their manifestation and social distribution in later life remain underexplored. This study examines the structure, distribution, and correlates of Growth Mindset and Grit in older adulthood using proxy indicators in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). MethodsProxy indicators reflecting learning behaviour, personality traits, affect, and beliefs were used to derive ...

Hybrid controlled trials (HCTs) incorporate real-world data into randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by augmenting the internal control arm with patients receiving the same treatment in routine care. Beyond increasing power, HCTs may improve recruitment by supporting unequal randomization ratios that increase patient access to experimental treatments. However, HCT validity is threatened by bias from unmeasured confounding due to lack of randomization of external controls, leading to outcome non-...

Students who frequently miss school are at greater risk for academic difficulty. High levels of absenteeism as early as kindergarten have been associated with long-term consequences, such as low reading proficiency in Grade 3 and low academic achievement in Grade 5, both of which have been associated with lower rates of high school graduation and enrollment in post-secondary education. The prevalence of school absenteeism has increased significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic and there have bee...

BackgroundThe management of residual axillary disease after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) remains controversial, as current recommendations often treat ypN1 breast cancer as a homogeneous entity despite potential prognostic heterogeneity. Evidence supporting uniform axillary surgical strategies across different levels of residual nodal burden is limited. We investigated whether survival associations related to axillary surgical evaluation differ according to residual nodal burden in ypN1 disease, us...